IK Monitor Research (8-3)

Indigenous Knowledge and Development Monitor, November 2000

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Research, projects

Validation of traditional meteorological principles in Saurashtra, India
The mission of Gujarat Agricultural University is to improve agricultural practices in the state. The university has four main campuses, one of which is located at Junagadh in Saurashtra. Here the university has been contributing to the development of agriculture since 1960. Saurashtra is located in the western part of Gujarat state. It is a drought-prone, predominantly dryland region. Agricultural drought has been a regular feature there since the 1970s.

The monsoon season extends from June to September and is characterized by erratic rainfall. The farmers of the region assign a lot of importance to accurate predictions of monsoon's onset since they base their cropping-pattern decisions on these predictions. Early onset suits crops with a long growing season, such as groundnut (the spreading type) and cotton. Delayed onset restricts the choice of crops to pulses, pearl millet, castor, and the bunching type of groundnut.

The monsoon season of 1990 prompted Gujarat Agricultural University to launch a project to systematically validate traditional meteorological beliefs and principles. For that year the official Department of Meteorology had predicted normal monsoon for the whole of India. Although monsoon was normal in the rest of the country, it eluded the region of Saurashtra until the month of July. The farmers of the region were anxious, since the time for sowing the crops with the longer growing season had already passed. At that time, Assistant Professor P.R. Kanani met with two local meteorological experts: Devji bhai Jamod, of Jetalsar village, and Jadhav bhai Kathiria of Alidhra village. Both predicted that monsoon could not possibly arrive before 15 August that year. Their assertion was based on the traditional belief that:

'If there is rain, accompanied with lightning and "roaring of clouds" (mild thunder), on the second day of Jayastha #1 , there will be no rain for the next seventy-two days.' (Bhadli, ca. 12th century)

On 15 August 1990, after exactly 72 days, Saurashtra experienced heavy showers, enabling farmers to plant the crops with the shorter growing season. This impressed Dr Kanani so much that he publicized it in the local press and made an appeal to readers to send information about other local experts in weather prediction. Many farmers wrote back suggesting that the university conduct systematic research on the subject.

For the resulting participatory research project, eight meteorological beliefs were selected for scientific validation, shortlisted on the basis of their popularity in Saurasthra. Traditional meteorological principles are often based on interactions between atmospheric variables such as wind, clouds and lighting that have been observed by astronomers and astrologers over the years. Of these, the 12th century Bhadli is very popular thanks to his couplets (Bhadli Vakyas), which have been transmitted as part of oral tradition. But beliefs regarding the prediction of rain or monsoon can also be based on biological indicators, such as the flowering and foliage of certain tree species, or the behaviour of specific birds and animals.

In collaboration with local experts, two diagrams were developed that provide a systematic framework for observations. Editors of all the local dailies cooperated by publishing the diagrams and the appeal to farmers and local experts free of charge. Readers were asked to send their observations to the university. The response was very encouraging, enabling the project team to select 200 collaborators from all over the region. For 195 days - from the first day of Kartika to the 15th day of Chaitra #2 - the collaborators recorded data along such parameters as wind velocity and direction, humidity, and the occurrence of rainbow and of dew. They did this for eight years, from 1990 to 1998. For each year, the data was tabulated and analysed on the basis of Bhadli's criteria. It was then sent to the university's Agricultural Research Committee for consideration by researchers and extension workers. The beliefs have thus been treated as hypotheses and tested over a period of eight years. Up to now, the scientists have failed to prove that seven of them are untrue. It is therefore likely that many of the beliefs will prove to be reliable indicators of monsoon.

Apart from validating their beliefs, the study has helped to restore the people's confidence in their own traditional knowledge and skills.

Another interesting side effect has been the formation of a knowledge network that cuts across formal and informal systems. It is called the Ancient Rain Prediction Network and it came into being following the first symposium on the subject. Under the title 'Ancient methods for studying rain phenomena', this was held at the Junagadh campus on 16 June 1997 and attended by some 60 traditional meteorologists. Research findings and observations were presented and the local experts made predictions. These were documented in the proceedings and disseminated to the public by the highly supportive local press.

The symposium has now become an annual event #3 with ever-growing numbers of participants. In last year's symposium, a resolution was passed to establish a professional body called the Ancient Rain Phenomena Association. Such a network helps individual experts to pool their knowledge and learn from each other. It enables the group as a whole to make a collective judgment and to provide the farming community a valuable service. In the past, farmers were often faced with conflicting judgments and predictions. Now it is easier for them to make their decisions. It is this service and the resulting support and appreciation of the farming community which keeps the network going. The experimentation and predictions are likely to continue without the help of external support. In the process, valuable meteorological data will be generated and additional beliefs will be tested. We believe that such a network can serve as a model for other dryland areas which rely on traditional experts for the prediction of monsoon.

For more information, contact: Professor Astad Pastakia, Nirma College of Management, Ahmedabad, India; or P.R. Kanani, Assistant Professor, Department of Extension Education, Gujarat Agricultural University, Junagadh Campus, Gujarat 362 001, India.
Tel.: +91-285-675 517.
Fax: +91-285-632 004.
E-mail: prkanani@gauj.guj.nic.in

1 The month indicated as per the Hindu lunar calendar, corresponding with May-June.
2 The corresponding months for Kartika and Chaitra would be October-November and March-April respectively.
3 Dr V.J. Savaliya, Dr M.A. Munshi, and Dr A.O. Kher are gratefully thanked for their help in organizing the annual seminars and contributing in various ways to the success of the project.